Dirk Nowitzki thinks that Kevin Durant, at his age, "is way ahead of my curve." Really?
I mean, yes, Durant is a consistent scoring champ, but he's only really asked to score in a league that features top scorers (like LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, and Dwyane Wade) that have to mix up the all-around game that features heavy assists and rebounds. And Dirk Nowitzki, while no master of the tasty dime himself, made his hay with all-around play that featured heavy rebounds, startling efficiency, and all-around numbers that held up even after you accounted for the blinding pace relative to the era that his Dallas Mavericks played at back then.
So is Kevin Durant really ahead of Dirk Nowitzki, at the same age? Well … yeah. You're watching something pretty special.
We're not taking into account the fact that Durant's Oklahoma City Thunder are in the Finals this year, after making it to the conference finals in 2011 and giving the eventual champion Los Angeles Lakers a real run in 2010. This is a team sport, and Dirk isn't to be needled for needing for merely coming off his first playoff jaunt at the same age. Both needed three years to get to the postseason, and fans of a certain age might not realize how absolutely astonishing (and this was coming from a then-youngster who had the Mavs pegged for great things in 2000-01) it was to see the Mavericks take down the venerable Utah Jazz in a deciding fifth game on the road in Dirk's first playoff series.
No, we're looking at the straight numbers, mindful of the fact that Dirk could very well have peeled off 17 points in the fourth quarter of his first Finals game in 2001 or 2002, had he not been playing on teams that started Greg Buckner or Howard Eisley for long stretches. And once you account for the sped up game Mavs coach Don Nelson insisted Steve Nash (back then, still rounding into form after injuries took away most of his effectiveness from 1998 until early 2001) push, Durant still comes off as ahead of the curve.
Not "way" ahead of it, Dirk. But ahead. Ho-lee cow. And given the exponential add-ons between now and Durant's prime, the gap could widen.
Before we begin the breakdown, take in Dirk's excellent scouting report of Durant's game, as kindly relayed by ESPN's Marc Stein (who was there for that barbecue, at Don Nelson's home in Dallas, that introduced Dirk to the United States in 1998):
"He's a 6-10 guy with a 7-4 wingspan who can shoot it from the parking lot. He's posting up now. In transition he's so long that, when he gets a pass from the 3-point line, it's a layup or dunk with one step. He's got the one- or two-dribble pull-up, which you need to be a great scorer, because you can't just shoot 3s or go to the basket if you want to be a great scorer, 'cause sometimes you can't get all the way to the bucket. He can go both ways, one or two dribbles and up.
"He's way more of a 3-man than I ever was," Nowitzki continued. "He handles the ball way better on the break than I ever did. He's got deeper range. And he's doing all this at 23. He's won the scoring title three times in a row, so that he means he won the first one at 21. I barely got through my rookie year. When I was 21, Gary Trent was still killing me in practice."
Start with the much-hated but quite useful Player Efficiency Rating. Durant pulled in a 26 (or so, depending on your stat source) this season, a mark he's managed twice so far in his career at age 23 and a half. Dirk couldn't work up that number until he was 26, in 2004-05. Even adjusting for Dallas' pace, Nowitzki's rebounding rate (even with Dirk playing the majority of his minutes at small forward back then) is a good chunk higher than Durant's, though Kevin assists better, shoots a wee bit better overall (once you factor in the massive heaps of free throws Durant earns; though the lack of hand check enforcement during Dirk's early years may have evened this out), and creates his shot more often.
(Also, the dirty secret? The Thunder don't run as often as you think, despite the team's youth, but those Mavs played just about as many possessions per game — around 93 — as the recent OKC outfits. Credit the shift in culture, that Don Nelson helped in courage, from a decade ago until now.)
So what's the difference? Why the slight uptick in Player Efficiency Rating? Why was Dirk Nowitzki averaging about 23 points per game per 36 minutes, when Durant (at around the same age) averages about 26? Especially with the sainted Steve Nash dishing to his best buddy, with the apparently Westbrook-loathing Russell Westbrook (that's a joke, people) looking elsewhere or for his own shot?
Kevin shoots more often, a few more times a game, and his shooting percentages are better. Simple as that.
It's a slight difference. Enough to where we can confidently state that Durant is "ahead" of Dirk at around the same age, but not "way ahead." Come on, Dirk. It's the internet. One missed word gives us an entire column to work off of.
This is also where we credit what came before us. Dirk Nowitzki had Larry Bird, Bob McAdoo, and Detlef Schrempf (not because of his German heritage, but because of his fantastic and similar game) to look up to. And all three of those guys, while shooting from afar with their lanky frame, could at least take it to the post from time to time. Quite a few times, actually. Dirk, until recently and only at the high post, did not work this in his early to mid 20s.
Durant? Same thing. And why? Because Dirk Nowitzki made it possible for Durant to thrive in an environment that would, in Dirk's day, endlessly harp on what he doesn't do. Kevin Durant created his own fortune out of hard work and endless practice, but Dirk helped create the mold that Kevin is currently firing away in. Don't take this as some sort of even-out factor, or excuse making for Nowitzki. It's just something we can't ignore.
While realizing that, since Dirk Nowitzki played his first game in 1999 and Kevin Durant plays his final game some 15 or so years from now, that we've been lucky to watch two special players kick so, so much ass.
(And that Kevin Durant, at the same age as Dirk Nowitzki, is kicking a little more tail than his predecessor.)
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